Friday, April 25, 2008

Slightly Unnerfing

Maybe I'm leaving some detail out of my calculations, but it appears to me that if the rumored vehicle damage rules come true, it will actually be harder to damage eldar skimmers with holo-fields and spirit stones than in 4th edition.

In 4th edition, for a BS4 unit to do anything more than shake a vyper/falcon with holos and stones it takes, on average:

  • 21/n bolter shots
  • (95%/n to shake or less)
  • 10/n heavy bolter shots
  • (89%/n to shake or less)
  • 4/10 plasma or autocannon shots
  • (74%/90% to shake or less)
  • 4/6 krak missiles
  • (67%/82% to shake or less)
  • 3/4 lascannon shots
  • (60%/74% to shake or less)

  • 21/n bolter shots
  • (95%/n to shake or less)
  • 11/n heavy bolter shots
  • (90%/n to shake or less)
  • 6/25 plasma or autocannon shots
  • (80%/94% to shake or less)
  • 5/14 krak missiles/6-12" melta/exorcist launcher shots
  • (75%/92% to shake or less)
  • 4/10 lascannon/0-6" melta shots
  • (70%/89% to shake or less)

Notice those are shots, not hits. If the rumored 5th edition vehicle damage table is accurate, to do anything more than shake the same vehicles it will take the same unit, on average:

  • 55/n bolter shots
  • (98%/n to shake or less)
  • 15/n heavy bolter shots
  • (93%/n to shake or less)
  • 6/25 plasma or autocannon shots
  • (83%/96% to shake or less)
  • 5/14 krak missiles
  • (78%/93% to shake or less)
  • 4/10 lascannon shots
  • (72%/89% to shake or less)
  • 3/6 7-12" melta/exorcist launcher shots
  • (60%/81% to shake or less)
  • 3/4 0-6" melta shots
  • (56%/71% to shake or less)

This assumes they moved 12", meaning they got the rumored "5+ cover save" for moving fast and were able to shoot at least one major weapon. Vypers will be only slightly more resistant to major damage from the higher strength weapons, but otherwise it looks like both vehicles are like doubly hard to bring down! Someone please prove my math wrong!

Besides the obvious boost to falcons as transport options,
I predict fire prisms will start to pop up in more eldar armies, with sets of three being especially powerful. Other than close range weapons like fusion guns, singing spears, or haywires/meltabombs, it'll be the best gun to take down monoliths and land raiders that the eldar have at their disposal. At best they'll be glancing and doing no more than immobilizing them with S8. I expect both of those AV14 monsters to become more popular as well. I would bet that the Ravenwing flying land raider will be tougher, too.

edit: Thanks to Jim for pointing out my error in my 4th edition calculations. I was including the possibility of using the penetrating damage table, when only glancing is possible in 4th against SMF! I knew the rule but copy/pasting must have got the better of me. I put the corrected versions up. So basically lower strength guns will have a bit harder time, with Vypers obviously benefitting the most from this, but high strength guns will have the same odds or better. Good to know. I tried to reorganize the data a bit below. I also calculated meltagun and exorcist launcher odds. Those get much better at bringing down SS/HF skimmers in 5th.

To do more than shake a SS/HF vyper in 4th edition vs. 5th edition, it takes a BS4 unit:

  • 21 vs. 55 bolter shots

  • 11 vs. 15 heavy bolter shots

  • 6 vs. 6 plasma gun/autocannon shots

  • 5 vs. 5 krak missile launcher shots

  • 5 vs. 3 7-12" meltagun/exorcist launcher shots

  • 3 vs. 4 0-6" meltagun shots

  • 4 vs. 4 lascannon shots



To do more than shake a SS/HF prism or falcon in 4th edition vs. 5th edition, it takes a BS4 unit:

  • 19 vs. 25 plasma gun/autocannon shots

  • 13 vs. 14 krak missile launcher shots

  • 13 vs. 6 7-12" meltagun/exorcist launcher shots

  • 7 vs. 4 0-6" meltagun shots

  • 10 vs. 10 lascannon shots

15 comments:

Bushido Red Panda said...

I ran the numbers for a bolter, here's what I got.

Chance of any given bolter shot taking down a Vyper.

50.0% chance to hit
16.7% to roll a glancing 6
66.7% chance it will not be saved
11.1% chance (4/36) to roll 5 and/or 6 on 2d6

.500 x .167 x .667 x .111 = .006

.6% chance or 1:166 for any given bolter shot to bring down a Vyper.

Ran through the Plasma too, but my brain is not as confident about the mixed glance/pen calculations.

.500 x .167 x .667 x .111 = .006 on a glance
.500 x .500 x .667 x .444 = .074 on a penetration

Total of .080 or 8.0% or 1:12.5

Bushido Red Panda said...

Las Cannon vs. Falcon

Today:

.500 x .667 x .028 (1/36) = .009 or .9% chance

5th:

.500 x .500 x .667 x .111 (4/36) = .018 or 1.8% chance

Looks to be about double the probability, but still not super easy.

bullymike said...

here's some examples of how I ran the math:

bolter vs. 4th edition HF/SS vyper:

2/3 to hit X 1/6 to glance X 16/36 to get a result other than shaken = 0.049383. Divide 1 by that number and you get 20.25, in other words 21 shots to get anything other than shaken.

lascannon vs. 4th edition HF/SS prism:

2/3 to hit X ((1/6 to glance X 1/4 to do more than shake)+(1/2 to pen X 25/36 to do more than shake)) = 0.259259. Divide 1 by that number and you get 3.857143, in other words 4 shots to do more than shake.

bolter vs. 5th edition HF/SS vyper:

2/3 to hit X 1/6 to glance X 2/3 to get through cover save X 1/4 to do more than shake = 0.018519. One divided by that number = 3.626866 or 4 shots to do more than shake.

lascannon vs. 5th edition HF/SS prism:

2/3 to hit X ((1/6 to glance X 2/3 to get through cover save X 1/9 to do more than shake)+(1/2 to pen X 2/3 to get through cover save X 4/9 to do more than shake)) = 0.106996. One divided by that number = 9.346154 or 10 shots to do more than shake.

Bushido Red Panda said...

okay, I'm an idiot, I've no idea why I was thinking 4+ to hit.

bullymike said...

i have some doubts about all this, mainly based on me rolling the dice for a while and seeing more damaged results than I would expect from these numbers. i linked up to minions, hopefully someone will see something wrong in my math.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't worry about it too much.

~kings

Anonymous said...

You wrote:

lascannon vs. 5th edition HF/SS prism:

2/3 to hit X ((1/6 to glance X 2/3 to get through cover save X 1/9 to do more than shake)+(1/2 to pen X 2/3 to get through cover save X 4/9 to do more than shake)) = 0.106996. One divided by that number = 9.346154 or 10 shots to do more than shake.

For 4th edition lascannon vs. HF/SS prism:

2/3 * 2/3 * 1/4 = 0.111111 ~ 9 shots, which is IMHO pretty close to 9.34

In fact, for any S9+ it is the same. For S8:

2/3 * 1/2 * 1/4 ~ 12 shots

For 5th S10 = .1399177 ~ 7.14 shots

So, for Lascannon, it is almost the same, but for a S10 they are more vulnerable. And for AP1 Railgun, even more so than before, with AP1 modifier.

I think what how things will be changed is that for S8 or S9 they will be marginally harder to kill, but for S10 or S9 AP1, they get somewhat easier.

-Jim (realgenius)

Anonymous said...

For later math-hammer: would an AP1 multi-melta now be better than a Lascannon because of the +1 on damage chart? Less likely to get to the damage table, but better at negating the holo-field advantage on the damage table.

-Jim (realgenius)

bullymike said...

Good call Jim. I was leaving penetrating damage in my calculations for 4th edition, when obviously the best part of that was the glancing hits only rule for SMF. I'll post the corrections in a sec. You are right, the stronger guns things get only negligibly more difficult, while the lower strength guns get a bit more of a challenge. good to know.

@kings - do I sound worried? my SH army has 3 prisms and 4 vypers, all with SS & HF. whatevs, i knew i must have made an error somewhere.

ubermosher said...

The real nerf for Vypers is that, if the rumors are to be believed, Vypers can no longer contest objectives. I'm not sure if they will be worth the points of Holofields and Spirit Stones to act as gun platforms.

I'll be interested in your playtests and experiences Bullymike.

Anonymous said...

@mike
oh I know you are not worried... I just ment that other people should not get too bent out of shape over something that hasn't happened yet. (ie you killing everything with your new SH army)

~kings

Anonymous said...

What about a Wave Serpent for S9 or higher.

I get this:
4th Ed. S9 or higher = 6 shots
5th Ed. S9 or higher = 16.2 shots

17 shots? Can that be right? Because of the -2 for Glance on the table and because the Wave Serpent always gives you a S8 vs AV14, it means half the time you are only going to not damage it, 1/6 you get a glance and 1/3 a pen.

Compared to the Falcon for S10 in 5th, it looks like Wave Serpents are a LOT more durable. And almost 3 x more durable than they are now.

Yay, finally a new thing for people to complain about.

-Jim

Anonymous said...

Ooops, I mean S8 vs AV12.

Anonymous said...

Wait, I did the math wrong. But still, for a S10 in 5th against Wave Serpent: 11.57 hits vs 6.23 hits for a Falcon. No AP1 factored in.

So charge those Wave Serpents at the Broadsides, and leave the Falcons for the Crisis Suits.

Autarch Siam Turien said...

I would have thought the rules would have weakend Skimmers- I have a Saim Hunn army so that was a big concern of mine.


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